Should I believe my fortune cookie?

They are not Chinese

This surprises almost everyone, and it surprised me, because I grew up in Malaysia eating in Chinese restaurants that never once produced a fortune cookie, and I assumed that was a local quirk rather than the whole story.

The fortune cookie has its roots in Japanese confectionery, a similar cracker with a paper slip was being made near Kyoto, and it reached American diners through Japanese-American bakers in California in the early twentieth century.

They then became attached to Chinese restaurants in the United States, and from there spread worldwide as a supposedly Chinese custom, while remaining largely unknown as a dining tradition in China itself, where they've been exported as an American curiosity.

None of which makes them less fun. It does mean a fortune cookie isn't carrying an ancient tradition, which is usually the unspoken reason for taking one seriously.

How the slips are written

By people, in batches, in advance. A small number of manufacturers supply an enormous share of the market, and a writer produces messages by the thousand from a rotating pool, which is a job I would take in a heartbeat.

The messages are written to be true of almost anyone. 'A pleasant surprise is waiting for you' and 'Your hard work will soon pay off' aren't predictions, they're sentences built so that no reader can find them inapplicable, which is the same Barnum effect that makes generic horoscopes feel personal, used on purpose rather than by accident.

The slip that reaches your table was decided by which cookie you grabbed from a bowl packed months ago in a factory, and I find that more charming than any claim of foresight.

Fortune cookies are Californian, and I think that fact improves them.

The one time a fortune cookie really did pay out

On 30 March 2005, the US Powerball draw produced an unusual result: 110 people won the second-prize tier at once, and lottery officials initially suspected fraud, because that many matching tickets was far outside anything they expected.

The explanation turned out to be a fortune cookie. A single manufacturer had printed a set of numbers on its slips, those cookies went out across many states, and enough people played the numbers that they all won together, which meant the prize pool for that tier had to be shared far more widely than designed.

It's a wonderful story, and I want to be precise about what it shows. The cookie didn't predict the numbers, and the numbers weren't the jackpot line. What it shows is what happens when thousands of people act on the same 'random' tip at once, which is a fact about distribution, not about foresight.

So what should you do with yours?

Read it, enjoy it, and notice if it lands. If a slip saying 'now is the time to try something new' gives you a jolt, the jolt is the part to keep, because it tells you something was already on your mind, which is the same mechanism as a Magic 8 Ball, and it's real even though the oracle isn't.

What I wouldn't do is change a decision because of one, or read a bad slip as a warning. A message written eighteen months ago for a print run of half a million people isn't about you, however neatly it seems to land, and I say that as someone who has kept three of them in my wallet.

Are fortune cookies Chinese?

No. They have Japanese origins (a similar cracker with a paper slip was made near Kyoto) and were popularised in California by Japanese-American bakers before becoming associated with Chinese restaurants in the United States. They aren't a traditional Chinese custom.

Who writes fortune cookie fortunes?

Writers employed by a small number of manufacturers, producing messages in bulk months in advance. The slips are drawn from a rotating pool and packed at random, so no message is connected to the person who receives it.

Did anyone ever win the lottery from a fortune cookie?

In the US Powerball draw of 30 March 2005, 110 people won the second-prize tier simultaneously because they had all played numbers printed on fortune cookie slips from the same manufacturer. Officials initially suspected fraud. The numbers didn't win the jackpot.

Why do fortune cookies feel accurate?

Because they're written to be. Messages are phrased so that almost any reader can find them applicable (the Barnum effect) and you supply the specific meaning yourself from whatever is already on your mind.